O-051 Guidance Methodology for Conducting Threat and Hazard Assessment, edited by R. Boulay

January 2000
Jason deW FitzGerald-Smith (Warhead Design), Edited for Unlimited Distribution by Rodrigue Boulay (Mitigation Methods)

The IM STANAG 4439 and its associated AOP-39 call for nations ratifying these documents to provide the results of any threat and hazard assessments made and the methodology used. Whereas AOP-39 outlines threat and hazard assessments (THA), it does not give any guidance on how such assessments should be conducted.

This paper describes the relationship between these two separate assessments and the link to risk assessment. It proposes a formalised approach and methodology for the assessments to provide the information needed to tailor standardised tests or exclude tests for munition safety evaluation. The paper describes a munition threat analysis and the munition hazard analysis arising from a threat. In combining these two analyses to evaluate the vulnerability of the
surrounding environment, the paper shows how this is used to conduct a risk assessment.

The methodology for conducting a munition THA is based on the life cycle profile of the munition. The life cycle consists of key phases during which there are different scenarios of situations a munition could encounter during its life (storage, transportation, operational deployment, etc.). It is necessary first to identify the munition situations. The paper then defines techniques that may be used for determining the threat and hazard analysis of a munition in each
one of these situations. These include the configuration of the munition, its duration in a situation, the type and nature of the threat, the probability of the threat, of its associated stimulus and of the predicted response in terms of explosive effects and damage to the surroundings, each associated with levels of confidence. The paper illustrates how these data can be used in a decision tree to form a rationale for the testing and the evaluation of the insensitiveness of a munition.

Presentation details

This paper was presented to the PARARI '99 Symposium held on 10-12 November 1999 in Rydges, Canberra, Australia and the IMEMTS held on 29 November-2 December 1999 in Tampa, Florida, USA