L-013 A Methodology for Evaluating Potential Threat Hazards to Military Munitions

February 1994
Jason deW FitzGerald-Smith (Warhead Design)

Although MIL-STD 2105B for US, OB Pillar Proc 42657 for UK, 1 No. 0260 DGA/IPE for FR and Draft STANAG 4439 for NATO nations specify that a hazard analysis should be completed to determine the range of threats a munition is likely to experience during its life cycle environmental profile, none of the above documents propose a procedure for conducting such an analysis. This document proposes a methodology for evaluating potential threats and hazards to military munitions during peacetime and military operations in order that the level and range of IM tests, necessary for assessing the degree a munition has achieved reduced vulnerability, can be prescribed into a tailored programme of tests.

The methodology involves using a logical Threat Hazard Tree to cover the range of threats and hazards to which a military munition is likely to be exposed to during all possible life cycle environmental profiles, and suggests how this Threat Hazard Analysis Tree procedure could be used for munitions likely to be used by Army and Marine Forces. However, it could be adapted and implemented for munitions used on Naval Ships or by Military Aircraft depending on the users needs. Using this Threat Hazard Tree logical approach identifies qualitatively the potential hazards from perceived accident and combat threat scenarios. It highlights the stimulus level and suggests that the characteristics of duration or likelihood of occurrence should be determined from other sources. Using a theoretical munition as an example and by justifying the range of threats from a series of threat matrix tables, the document demonstrates how the user is provided with a complete overview of all the potential threats and hazards the munition is likely to be exposed to along with the means of deciding the most appropriate and relevant IM and safety tests necessary to assess these threats.

To use this procedure effectively as a decision aid, the document recommends that the logic process should be presented in the form of a computer programme in which the associated software describes the logic process along with detailed notes and instructions for each of the decision boxes. Such a programme to be written will be based on the scenario described in this document, but with the capacity to add, modify or delete the presented set-up to suit individual needs.